ultra rares again?

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Rapsey
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Rapsey » Sat May 23, 2020 7:42 pm

Okay, there's a lot to be said on this topic so I probably won't be able to address it all in one post.

First of all, yes there will definitely be another rare sale. If there is ever going to be a last sale we will let everyone know that it is the last one, so no one continues hoarding credits in anticipation of a sale that isn't coming.
Nazuths wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 6:31 am Honestly not a fan of yet another sale.

Especially due to its self-serving nature.
Neither are we, but unfortunately it's necessary to boost income periodically or it just dies down. Most do this through discounts and exclusives. We do the same but in a way that I believe is more community-friendly.

Pvm porn wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 8:20 am I mean, it's up to Mike and Rapsey obviously, I'm sure they're fairly aware that the last sale went well.
It went alright. I do think some things could've been done better. IMO a few too many legends were put on sale and because of it the sale dragged on for far longer than it should have. We overcompensated because some people were worried that if we only sold 5, they'd all be gone within minutes of the sale starting.

Pvm porn wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 8:20 am That being said, last time there was a good reason (the server was doing very poorly and we launched an advertising campaign IIRC), and I think it could hurt future unique sales if we did these without reason. If this becomes a regular thing to the point people are thinking "well I don't need to buy these because I can just wait for the next one", then obviously the sales will slow down to the point that it's almost like we're just regularly selling rares.
Unfortunately that reason still exists. Playercounts alone do not reflect how well the server is doing income-wise. Although a single sale like this can give us a much needed boost and even carry us forward another 6-12 months, eventually things go back to normal and the reserve you have built up from the sale has run out. Personally I don't like the sales but I can live with them. If a sale every 6-12 months is what it takes to keep PkHonor going indefinitely that's not such a huge price to pay.

Your concern about them becoming a common thing is certainly warranted. That is something we want to avoid as well. As it is I don't think we're anywhere near making them common though. If we have a sale roughly every 9 months and we rotate items around so they're only sold once in every 3 sales, then a rare would go on sale once every 2 years (and even then only 5-10 of them). That's still very rare.

Ryan wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 2:05 pm ^ This.

It'll eventually get to a point where players just save credits and wait for 'ultra rares'. Which will lead to a fairly big dip in donations because the price of credits will eventually crash.. pretty similar to whats happening now. I've literally seen people struggle to sell credits recently. Perhaps some new permanent items or something? But adding ultra rares "too often" won't really help the server in anyway, more so it'll help the "rich players that can hoard credits".
This is true. There's no eventually about it. Since the first sale it has been the case that after the sale, people would continue to buy up credits at a significantly increased price. This then gradually decreases over the next few months until all the hoarders have stockpiled enough to be prepared for the next sale. At this point the price of credits goes back to exactly what it was before: ~2.5M/credit. It can't go any lower than that because nearly all items in the donator store are priced around ~2.5M/credit. Anyone selling credits for less would be better off spending them themselves.

But so what? Why is it a bad thing that increased spending is more spread out?

If we did what everyone else did, e.g. 50% discount for 2-4 weeks on the payment side, then we would see a huge donation increase in those few weeks and then almost nothing for months until the next sale. Because of people hoarding credits we instead get a gentle boost that lasts for months. From our perspective that's a lot more stable. It is essentially a 50% discount that does not end abruptly but decreases over time as supply and demand settles.

As for "helping the rich players that can hoard credits"... In what way are we helping them?

Can they merch their expensive investment and sell it for profit? Sure. But that much has always been true. In fact I think most would argue that rich players used to profit a lot more from these items than they do now. That would mean we have done the exact opposite of helping them.

Donators want wealth. Rich players want things to spend their wealth on. Why spawn money for donators and then look for money sinks for rich players when you can have the money from the rich players go directly to the donators?

Our approach to donations has always been this way: the F2P players help drive donations, and more often than not donators function as suppliers for them. They donate to sell. It used to be mostly mboxes, statuses and custom whips, now it's also credits directly. So what? This is the symbiotic relationship that comes from our wealth-based everything-tradeable approach and it's one of the big reasons why our eco isn't messed up.

Ensignor wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 6:33 am While you profit the prices of the rare plummet and the value of owning such a rare decreases.. I mean look at the legends cape. Before it was meddled with, it was what 3-5t? Whats it now again?
I kept your reply for last because I want to go a bit more in depth on the price history of the legends cape. To say it was worth 3-5T is... a matter of opinion I guess.

I've done my best to make a complete overview of when legends capes were sold and for how much. Please note that this is extremely difficult to do accurately. Usually we do this based on GE, since that's the only place where it's always a single item being sold for cash and it's always a sale. But legends capes rarely ever get sold via GE, almost always via trades.

Trades are tricky. These items get traded around a lot but most of the time they're just loans or transfers. You'd think it would be easy to filter these out but it isn't. Quite often the other player trades something in collateral (e.g. my grain for your legends). In some cases it's impossible to tell that it wasn't an actual sale until you see it reversed later on in the logs.

Another problem with trades is that people often don't pay with money but with items. If the payment for a legends includes other rares then you need to know how much those rares are worth, not just now but around the time when the trade happened. This also applies to things like donator credits. And sometimes the legends cape is not the only thing that is being sold so then you kinda have to guess how much of the payment was meant for the legends cape.

Anyway, after a lot of cursing I think I've come up with a fairly accurate overview.

Code: Select all

Date       | Type  |             Price
2016-02-20 | TRADE |   727,100,000,000
2016-02-21 | TRADE |   500,000,000,000
2016-02-21 | TRADE |   500,000,000,000
2016-02-24 | TRADE |   594,350,000,000
2016-04-28 | TRADE |   750,000,000,000
2016-05-04 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2016-05-13 | TRADE |   805,000,000,000
2016-05-23 | TRADE |   975,000,000,000
2016-05-24 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2016-05-27 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2016-06-01 | TRADE |   750,000,000,000
2016-06-04 | TRADE |   750,000,000,000
2016-06-04 | TRADE |   753,000,000,000
2016-06-05 | TRADE |   800,000,000,000
2016-06-06 | TRADE |   775,000,000,000
2016-06-06 | TRADE |   600,000,000,000
2016-06-08 | TRADE |   675,000,000,000
2016-06-10 | TRADE |   725,000,000,000
2016-06-26 | TRADE |   702,897,483,646
2016-08-11 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2016-08-12 | TRADE |   917,097,374,100
2016-08-28 | TRADE |   750,000,000,000
2016-09-26 | TRADE |   835,350,000,000
2016-10-17 | TRADE |   970,500,000,000
2016-11-06 | TRADE |   825,000,000,000
2016-11-07 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2016-12-24 | TRADE |   808,917,251,441
2016-12-25 | TRADE |   850,000,000,000
2016-12-25 | TRADE |   850,000,000,000
2016-12-27 | TRADE |   843,000,000,000
2016-12-27 | G.E.  |    99,999,999,999
2017-02-05 | G.E.  | 1,000,000,000,000
2017-02-05 | G.E.  |   750,000,000,000
2017-02-12 | G.E.  | 1,100,000,000,000
2017-02-12 | TRADE |   900,000,000,000
2017-02-27 | TRADE | 1,250,000,000,000
2017-03-10 | TRADE |   800,000,000,000
2017-03-31 | G.E.  |   962,275,781,250
2017-05-04 | TRADE |   504,000,000,001
2017-05-14 | TRADE |   225,000,000,000
2017-05-19 | TRADE |   825,000,000,000
2017-05-22 | G.E.  | 1,000,000,000,000
2017-05-22 | G.E.  | 1,150,000,000,000
2017-05-22 | G.E.  | 1,200,000,000,000
2017-05-23 | G.E.  | 1,500,000,000,000
2017-05-26 | G.E.  | 1,700,000,000,000
2017-06-29 | G.E.  | 1,100,000,000,000
2017-07-11 | G.E.  | 1,050,000,000,000
2017-07-29 | G.E.  | 1,025,000,000,000
2017-08-20 | TRADE |   961,415,375,000
2017-12-05 | TRADE | 1,999,175,000,000
2017-12-10 | TRADE | 1,750,000,000,000
2018-05-30 | TRADE | 4,472,000,000,000
2018-06-15 | TRADE | 3,650,000,000,000
2018-07-06 | TRADE |   600,000,000,010
2018-10-23 | TRADE | 2,002,500,000,000
2019-03-03 | TRADE | 4,275,000,000,000
2019-03-22 | TRADE | 3,000,000,000,000
2019-08-13 | G.E.  | 2,900,000,000,000
>>> SALE <<<
2019-12-22 | TRADE | 1,375,000,000,000
2020-01-04 | TRADE | 2,300,000,000,000
2020-01-04 | TRADE | 1,150,000,000,000
2020-01-08 | TRADE | 1,150,000,000,000
2020-01-10 | TRADE | 1,096,950,000,000
2020-01-13 | TRADE | 1,197,500,000,000
2020-01-18 | TRADE | 1,150,000,000,000
2020-01-20 | TRADE | 1,200,000,000,000
2020-01-23 | TRADE |   437,500,000,000
2020-01-31 | TRADE |   900,000,000,000
2020-03-19 | TRADE |   342,000,000,000
2020-05-12 | TRADE | 1,100,000,000,000
2020-05-13 | TRADE | 1,081,500,000,000
2020-05-14 | TRADE | 1,079,250,000,000
2020-05-22 | TRADE | 1,410,000,000,000
Please keep in mind there will still be some false positives in this. Not all of these are necessarily sales. Some of the lower ones may very well be loans where the other person gave something in return. But the data is still relevant because what this tells you is: no legends cape has ever been sold for more than this. There may be some entries on the list that weren't sales but the list should include all sales.

Now, you could look at 2018-2019 and claim that legends was worth 3-5T because it was sold for twice for 3T+ and twice for 4T+. Okay, fair point. But also look at just how few were sold in those years and how drastic the price increase and sale decrease were compared to most of 2017. It's almost as if all the legends cape owners collectively agreed not to sell their capes unless someone paid them 2-4x as much as they were worth just a few months before. Unsurprisingly almost no one was willing to pay that price and legends cape trading all but came to a halt. This was the era of legends cape hoarding and if you want one you better make me an offer so ridiculous I can't refuse.

Maybe we were wrong to burst that bubble. I think it was a good thing. Now they are back to reasonable prices instead of monopolized extortion prices. From this data at least it doesn't look like we have ruined the item.

Will be ok2
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Will be ok2 » Sat May 23, 2020 8:30 pm

@Rapsey what are your thoughts on my recommended items + pricing
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Rapsey
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Rapsey » Sat May 23, 2020 8:36 pm

Will be ok2 wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 8:30 pm @Rapsey what are your thoughts on my recommended items + pricing
My answer is still the same as the last time you asked. ;)

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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Will be ok2 » Sat May 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Rapsey wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 8:36 pm
Will be ok2 wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 8:30 pm @Rapsey what are your thoughts on my recommended items + pricing
My answer is still the same as the last time you asked. ;)
Sounds good :D my only other question would be could you give us a rough time frame on when you think items will be added? Also ty for the quick reply’s and in-depth reply’s to everyone
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Rapsey » Sat May 23, 2020 8:42 pm

Will be ok2 wrote: Sat May 23, 2020 8:37 pm Sounds good :D my only other question would be could you give us a rough time frame on when you think items will be added? Also ty for the quick reply’s and in-depth reply’s to everyone
I cannot, because I do not know either.

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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Tezey » Mon May 25, 2020 11:49 am

Buying legends 350b
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Isaac
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Isaac » Mon May 25, 2020 2:14 pm

Hoarding credits is just a merch tactic, nothing wrong with it. In the same way that if you were smart and bought 100 Vesta's sets before they were removed is also a tactic.

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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Thierryu1 » Mon May 25, 2020 2:39 pm

Isaac wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:14 pm Hoarding credits is just a merch tactic, nothing wrong with it. In the same way that if you were smart and bought 100 Vesta's sets before they were removed is also a tactic.
I wish I had brain
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by James » Mon May 25, 2020 2:42 pm

Isaac wrote: Mon May 25, 2020 2:14 pm Hoarding credits is just a merch tactic, nothing wrong with it. In the same way that if you were smart and bought 100 Vesta's sets before they were removed is also a tactic.
I hope you’re joking
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Re: ultra rares again?

Post by Brant » Mon May 25, 2020 2:43 pm

So your telling me market manipulation is a tactic? Yeah OK. The whole idea with these rare sells was to try to make them more affordable for the people who weren't there from the beginning of time. If the rich people just stock up on credits and buy all of the rares out, then what point does it serve? The only people that would profit would be those that have the money for so many donate credits, like @Will be ok2 I know for a fact that he is just doing this to boost his wealth and doesn't care about any other person that he can merch this off of.
Personally, the whole idea of having rares is stupid in my opinion. Take legends cape for example. This cape is very common among other servers. When a new player joins and sees that the cape is 1t+ there first respond isn't, OH wow I wanna grind out 1t so I can get this cape. No, it's more on the lines of, 1t for a fucking cape? This server is shit. Wtf is a common cape going for so much. There's a reason for why osrs didn't produce any rare items in there, it's because they learn that pointless items would eventually become worth so much it doesn't make any sense, just like party hats are in rs3.

If you guys actually end up going through with this, I recommend making the price for these items (current trade price / 3m) as that's the value of a credit.

Tldr: idea of rares is stupid, people will easily merch other people, make the price current trade value/3m

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